Pop quiz: can you tell me who starred in the last three reels or TikToks you watched? Or at least what they were about? No?
Don’t worry; your memory is not in trouble. They just weren’t important enough for you to remember.
Like you, almost everyone who watched them will have forgotten all about them come tomorrow.
We live in an era of information overload. This tweet blew my mind:
Queen started singing in 1970 and their songs are still played today. Farther back in time, Shakespeare wrote Romeo and Juliet in 1957 and it’s still played and read today, more than 400 years later.
But last month’s viral reel? Yeah, that aged like milk.
Yet, even in this era, some ideas never die. They stand the test of time.
How can you differentiate ephemeral noise from perennial signals? More importantly, how can you make sure your business is built upon an idea that will stand the test of time? (If you missed the last issue about big ideas and content pillars, you can read it here.)
Enter the Lindy Effect
The Lindy Effect states that the longer something has been around, the longer it will stay with us in the future. In other words, if it stood the test of time, you can rely on it.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term in his book Antifragile:
“If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years.
This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!”
Image via Sketchy Ideas
Is your BIG idea Antifragile/Perennial?
To answer this, consider two things:
- The “job” your service or product does
- The need/want it responds to
Let’s start with the latter. I covered this in a previous issue of this newsletter, so I’m going to add a screenshot below and you can read the full issue here.
Your offer should respond to one of these needs — and most offers do. The real trouble is zeroing in on the most basic form of that need.
How you answer that need matters even more. How you fulfill the “job” is what dictates if your big idea is antifragile or a fad.
→ Are you using “hacks” and shortcuts to get people to the result they want? Then make sure you stay on top of trendy hacks and new technologies because your current solution is going to expire soon-ish.
→ Do you use theories and ideas that have already stood the test of time? Congrats! You’ll probably be in business for years to come. Caveat: modern medicine is better than herbal remedies from 2,000 years ago.
What about innovating? I want to build something new, not re-invent the wheel
I hear you. The Lindy Effect does NOT force you to stick to what you know and never try anything new.
It just tells you to root every new thing you create into an existing human need because that’s how you know it will stand the test of time.
Better yet, make sure people understand your cutting-edge innovation responds to a basic need.
The best example here is email. Its inventor could have coined an earth-shattering name to emphasize its newness, like ByteWoosh. But they went with e-mail to root it into something people were already familiar with: it’s just like regular mail (you need that!), only electronic.
The Lindy Effect in your marketing
You know I’m not a fan of hacks and The Lindy Effect is one of the reasons why: hacks are short-lived and ephemeral, real strategy stands the test of time and it’s rooted in human psychology and sociology.
Shameless plug: this is why my upcoming course, Audience Accelerator, won’t teach you how to write hooks or how to game social media algorithms. Those come and go.
Instead, I’ll teach you how to connect with your audience and get and retain attention. Because those principles are perennial — humans respond to the same triggers they have been responding to for centuries and millennia.
The course goes live in mid-July and you’ll be the first to learn when it happens if you click here and join my priority announcement list. *wink-wink*.
Want to get better at marketing?
- Learn psychology and sociology.
- Then read Philip Kotler, not Alex Hormozi.
- Hormozi is the shortcut, the cherry on top, something you can properly evaluate only if you have a solid foundation. Otherwise, you’ll apply Alex’s advice to things it was never meant for.
Similarly, if you want to refine your tactics, forget about the perfect hook, going viral, or trying to understand this week’s algorithm change. Instead, stay true to your content pillars and your big idea.
Take the reach hit. It’s better than diluting your message for the sake of blending in.
Jeff Bezos saw the Lindy Effect before Nassim Nicholas Taleb
I usually shy away from quoting uber-famous business people but Jeff Bezos is on to something here:
“I very frequently get the question, “What’s going to change in the next ten years?” And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one.
I almost never get the question, “What’s not going to change in the next ten years?”
Similarly, Warren Buffet’s investing advice is betting on companies you trust will be there for another decade or more, NOT “buying the dip”.
Like marketing hacks, day trading made very few people rich and left too many bankrupt. Similarly, investing in gold versus Bitcoin or, worse, altcoins.
Want to be in business for another decade? Go back to fundamental principles and build your business on them, not on ephemeral hacks. Get-rich-quick-schemes rarely work, despite what this week’s popular business guru said on a podcast.
✋ Limitations
As with all heuristics, The Lindy Effect is not a hard rule. Companies with a history of 40+ years have gone bankrupt, just as songs that topped international charts for months have been forgotten.
It’s a game of probabilities: when in doubt, go for time-tested principles and tactics.
Similarly, when someone tells you this is the “new way of doing business or marketing”, raise your eyebrow and look for the perennial principles in their statement. If there are none, run!
Here’s an example: “people buy from people, not faceless brands”.
True, but hardly new.
In fact, business people have always relied on networking for the “big” deals. They bought from people, whether you could see that as a consumer or not.
One final reminder: all marketing channels decay with time. The fishmonger who shouted about how fresh his fish was in the town’s market 2,000 years ago has been replaced by Facebook ads and flashy banners. However, people still buy the fish because it’s fresh, not because they saw the ad on a certain channel.
Perennial principles, not hype! Strong signals, not noise.
Adriana’s picks
- The US Supreme Court has determined that social media companies are protected under the First Amendment. This means that they have a free speech right to organize, curate, and moderate the content on their platforms as it relates to their unique Standards and Guidelines.
- The EU has decided that Meta’s paid subscription to block targeted advertising on its platforms is illegal under its Digital Markets Act.
- Creators are going to the White House! The first-ever Creator Economy Conference will happen this August so influencers and creators can discuss pressing topics like data privacy, AI, and mental health.
That’s it from me today!
See you next week in your inbox.
Here to make you think, Adriana
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